Earth change roundup for the end of July 2013

Here are a few articles I put together, which are earth change related events from the past few daysto a week.

Tragedy: Seven people drowned at a number of resorts across the Mediterranean coast of France yesterday, including at Carnon

28 July 2013 - 'Seven people drown in seas off France's Mediterranean coast after 80mph winds and unpredictable currents cause treacherous conditions' - "Another three in 'serious condition' after escaping from the sea. Four  victims died on the beaches, while three others died in hospital"

July 25 - 'Report confirms drought worst in nearly 70 years' - (New Zealand) "A comparative study on the 2013 drought released today by the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) confirms it was one of the most extreme on record for New Zealand and the worst since 1945-46. The 2013 drought was also one of the most widespread New Zealand has experienced with only the drought of 1972-73 that affected Wairarapa, Tasman, Otago and Southland coming close to its geographical spread."

26 July - 'Siberia Heat: Did The Arctic Region Break A Heat Record?' - "Did the Arctic region break a heat record? According to English-language outlet The Siberian Times, temperatures of 32 degrees Celsius, or 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit, were recorded in the Siberian city of Norilsk on July 21. The average temperature in July in the region is 13.6 C, or 56.48 F."



29 July - 'Earthquakes Contribute to Global Warming by Releasing Methane from Ocean Floor' - "A study conducted by Swiss and German scientists has uncovered a natural source of greenhouse gas emission - methane.  Researchers emphasize that climate scientists need to consider the amount of methane being released as earthquakes rip open ocean floors, in order to better understand the various sources of greenhouse gases."

26 July 2013 - 'VOLCANO WATCH: U.S. ranks high with active volcanoes' -  "HAWAII VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK, Hawaii – When Mount St. Helens erupted explosively in 1980, most people were unaware that the U.S. ranks as one of the top countries in the world in the number of geologically young, active volcanoes. An updated review of the Nation’s active volcanism from 1980 through the end of 2012, however, shows that 107 eruptions occurred at 32 volcanoes (most of which are located in Alaska), and at least 41 episodes of unrest were observed at 13 volcanoes."

29 July 2013 - 'NFU claims extreme weather poses biggest threat to British farming' - "Erratic swings from floods to heatwaves and drought caused by climate change is devastating harvests, says NFU president"

29 July 2013 - 'Rainfall fell by 58% comparing to last year, water reductions in Tehran, Iran' - "Heatwave is scourging Iran bringing temperatures to alarming heights which, combined with the lack of rainfall, created drinking water shortages and reductions."

29 July 2013 - 'Heatwave and hailstones the size of tennis balls, Germany' - "While most of Germany endures exceptional heatwave, eyewitnesses from village of Wassel in Sehnte reported hailstones the size of tennis balls on Saturday, July 27, 2013. AP brings video with images of damaged houses and vehicles:"

28 July 2013 - 'Record rainfall for Philadelphia, flooding for entire region' - "A Sunday afternoon deluge turned roads into rivers in South Jersey, submerging cars and stranding drivers, and set a record for one-day rainfall in Philadelphia."

27 July 2013 - 'Hundreds of thousands affected by drought in Namibia' - "Namibian government declared a state of emergency on May 17, 2013 due to prolonged dry season which resulted in widespread crop failure across the country. About 780,000 people (approximately one third of Namibia’s entire population) are now classified as food insecure. "

27 July 2013 - '21 dead as floods strike quake-hit Chinese province' - "At least 21 people have been killed and four reported missing in floods and mudslides that hit a Chinese province where at least 95 others died this week in twin earthquakes, state media reported on Saturday."

28 July 2013 - 'Rain moves through Orange County as flooding cleanup continues' - "CHAPEL HILL, N.C. - A heavy rain system that left flooding in part of North Carolina moved through Orange County Saturday where people are still cleaning up from flooding last month."

27 July 2013 - 'PAGASA: Flash floods threaten Bicol, Vis-Min as potential cyclone moves closer to Davao City' - "Residents of Bicol, Visayas and Mindanao were advised to brace for possible flash floods and landslides from a potential cyclone - a low-pressure area - that moved closer to Davao City before noon on Saturday."

29 July 2013 - 'Heatwaves will make crops produce smaller grains' - "Extreme weather is ruining farmlands as British farmers find it difficult to cope with volatile seasonal changes"

27 July 2013 - 'Environmental disaster in Canada - Primrose oilsands site in Alberta unable to stop oil leaking for over nine weeks' - "Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNR) operates the Primrose oilsands facility northeast of Edmonton where four ongoing underground oil blowouts have contaminated forest, muskeg and a lake and have already killed dozens animals. The sites are located in a remote area which has restricted access to the public. Alberta's Oil Sands is the third-largest crude oil reserve in the world, next to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Alberta government and the company hasn't yet officially confirmed the cause of the blowout, the amount of spilled material, wildlife impacts, water-quality monitoring or a plan to stop the spill."

29 July 2013 - 'Environmental Disaster: Oil Spill Reaches Thai Holiday Island Ko Samet' - "An estimated 50,000 gallons of oil spilled into the sea in the Gulf of Thailand through a leak in an oil pipeline this weekend. The Thai Navy tried unsuccessfully on Sunday to prevent the oil slick to reach the coast. Some floating barriers were deposited off the coast to catch the  oil film and finally aspirate it."

29 July 2013 - 'Latest threat to Great Lakes: Scientists discover floating masses of tiny plastic bits' - "TRAVERSE CITY, Michigan — Already ravaged by toxic algae, invasive mussels and industrial pollution, the Great Lakes now confront another potential threat that few had even imagined until recently: untold millions of plastic litter bits, some visible only through a microscope."

Living a nightmare in China's city of sinkholes

Via cnn.com, 25 July 2013 - Four months after he built a new, two-story brick house in his village in northern China's Shandong Province, Xiao Guoqiang was alarmed to find a huge crack on the living room wall.

Xiao Guoqiang, a 50-year-old farmer stands before his sunken village in Jining, Shandong Province on June 26, 2013. Underground mining in this region is devouring 20 million square meters of land a year.

Having seen homes in neighboring villages sink, Xiao realized his long-held fears were coming true.
"I knew the day was coming, but I didn't expect it to happen so soon," said Xiao, who has been forced to move from the land -- on which four generations of his family have lived -- as a consequence.

Xiao's hometown, Jining, is one of China's "coal cities," whose mineral wealth helps light up the night skies of the world's most energy-hungry country. The land here is honeycombed with coal mines, which can form massive sinkholes that leave thousands of homes uninhabitable every year.

Ten years ago, the area where Xiao lived was a vibrant farming community on the North China Plain. But sinkholes are devouring 20 million square meters (7.7 square miles) of land here a year, according to the Jining Land Resource Bureau, and have displaced an estimated 100,000 people, mostly farmers and their families, over the past decade.

By 2090, the bureau predicts one third of the city -- an area as large as Los Angeles -- will fall into the earth, and an estimated 5 million people will have been forced out of the region by the problem.

Those figures worry government-affiliated sinkhole researcher Gu Mei, who said tensions over migration may lead to social unrest.

"Schools in some districts are overwhelmed with migrant students, while in other districts, classrooms are half empty," she told CNN.

Sinkholes: Common, costly and sometimes deadly

In this low-lying area, most sinkholes quickly fill with water. "I am afraid the city is turning into the Venice of the East," former mayor Li Guangsheng told the Qilu Weekly, a local newspaper, earlier this year.

When coal was discovered in the region in the 1960s, it proved a boon for the local economy. State-run miner YanKaung Group Ltd. grew from a local coal company to a multination-listed energy giant, employing about one of every two workers in town.

Meng Lingjun, a coal company employee, remembers the city as an underdeveloped backwater thirty years ago.

"When I was young, the town did not have a single factory, shopping mall or train station," he said. "Now we are one of the most affluent regions in North China."

But that prosperity has come at a price. Each day, Meng passes hundreds of sinkholes on his way to work. Like many urban residents, he believes it is too late for the city to withdraw from the lucrative coal business.
"We are nothing without the coal company," he said. "All we can do is keep mining and fixing the sinkholes."
In recent years, local officials tried several creative solutions for the sinkhole crisis, transforming the gaping holes into water theme parks, fishing ponds and lakes. One has been turned into a wetland park, a major spot for bird watching in the northern part of the city; another is now a fish breeding pond powered by solar panels.

But more than 50% of the subsided land remains abandoned, often polluted and emitting a pungent aroma. "The fund from central government for fixing sinkholes can barely cover expenses," government official Han Xizhong told CNN.

While China's Mine Subsidence Compensation Act gives clear guidance for how much a coal company should pay displaced residents for damages, it fails to take into account the problems that follow, Han said.
"The sinkhole issue is more complicated than removing a village and refilling the sinkholes," said another local official, who asked his name not be used because of the sensitive nature of the issue. "Many deep sinkholes have been sinking for over 10 years. You don't know the right time to treat them. Also communities removed from the subsidence area still need government support after moving to a new place."

But government-affiliated researcher Gu Mei claims the government has done a poor job addressing the problem.

"Local government would not consider filling sinkholes," Gu said. "Think about it. If you can easily turn a flooded subsidence into a water theme park, would you take pains to reclaim the land?"

Some farmers have attempted to fill the holes themselves -- only to find the cost is too high.

It costs at least US$15 per square meter to drain a hole and put in new soil. But according to Xiao Guoqiang, villagers only get compensated to the tune of US$5 per square meter from the coal company.

The Yankuang Group declined CNN requests for comment, citing the sensitivity of mining-induced farmland losses and migration issues.

For Xiao, the move to his new home has hit the family's dinner table as they can no longer raise their own pigs or grow their own vegetables.

"The pork price is rising and we cannot afford it. Having fresh vegetables and meat had never been a problem before because we grew and bred what we wanted to eat," Xiao said.
Another villager points out the lack of jobs in the new location.

"Our new home is 20 miles (32.1 kilometers) from the nearest town. It is hard for us find a decent job," said Kong Jian, who operates a street noodle stand.

"Young people flock to bigger cities, looking for factory jobs. Those who stayed are doing small businesses like operating noodle restaurants," Xiao said. "But for the next generation, nobody will know how to farm."
The 50-year old gets emotional when talking about his old village.

"As I get older, my nostalgic feeling for the old village grows stronger. I try not to think about it -- about the fact that it is a lake and the village only lives in my memory."

Mysterious hum driving people crazy around the World

Via livescience.com, 25 July 2013 (Thanks Connie)- It creeps in slowly in the dark of night, and once inside, it almost never goes away.

The Hum, a mysterious droning sound, has been heard in places like Bristol, England, Bondi, Australia and Taos, N.M. (Taos Pueblo shown). 

It's known as the Hum, a steady, droning sound that's heard in places as disparate as Taos, N.M.; Bristol, England; and Largs, Scotland.

But what causes the Hum, and why it only affects a small percentage of the population in certain areas, remain a mystery, despite a number of scientific investigations.

Reports started trickling in during the 1950s from people who had never heard anything unusual before; suddenly, they were bedeviled by an annoying, low-frequency humming, throbbing or rumbling sound.

The cases seem to have several factors in common: Generally, the Hum is only heard indoors, and it's louder at night than during the day. It's also more common in rural or suburban environments; reports of a hum are rare in urban areas, probably because of the steady background noise in crowded cities.

Who hears the Hum?

Only about 2 percent of the people living in any given Hum-prone area can hear the sound, and most of them are ages 55 to 70, according to a 2003 study by acoustical consultant Geoff Leventhall of Surrey, England.

Most of the people who hear the Hum (sometimes referred to as "hearers" or "hummers") describe the sound as similar to a diesel engine idling nearby. And the Hum has driven virtually every one of them to the point of despair. [Video: Listen to 6 Spooky Sounds]

"It's a kind of torture; sometimes, you just want to scream," retiree Katie Jacques of Leeds, England, told the BBC. Leeds is one of several places in Great Britain where the Hum has recently appeared.

"It's worst at night," Jacques said. "It's hard to get off to sleep because I hear this throbbing sound in the background … You're tossing and turning, and you get more and more agitated about it."

Being dismissed as crackpots or whiners only exacerbates the distress for these complainants, most of whom have perfectly normal hearing. Sufferers complain of headaches, nausea, dizziness, nosebleeds and sleep disturbances. At least one suicide in the United Kingdom has been blamed on the Hum, the BBC reports. [The Top 10 Spooky Sleep Disorders]

The Hum zones

Bristol, England, was one of the first places on Earth where the Hum was reported. In the 1970s, about 800 people in the coastal city reported hearing a steady thrumming sound, which was eventually blamed on vehicular traffic and local factories working 24-hour shifts.

Another famous hum occurs near Taos, N.M. Starting in spring 1991, residents of the area complained of a low-level rumbling noise. A team of researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of New Mexico, Sandia National Laboratories and other regional experts were unable to identify the source of the sound.

Windsor, Ontario, is another Hum hotspot. Researchers from the University of Windsor and Western University in London, Ontario, were recently given a grant to analyze the Windsor Hum and determine its cause.

Researchers also have been investigating the Hum in Bondi, a seaside area of Sydney, Australia, for several years, to no avail. "It sends people around here crazy — all you can do is put music on to block it out. Some people leave fans on," one resident told the Daily Telegraph.

Back in the United States, the Kokomo Hum was isolated in a 2003 study financed by the Indiana city's municipal government. The investigation revealed that two industrial sites — one a Daimler Chrysler plant — were producing noise at specific frequencies. Despite noise-abatement measures, some residents continue to complain of the Hum.

What causes the Hum?

Most researchers investigating the Hum express some confidence that the phenomenon is real, and not the result of mass hysteria or hearers' hypochondria (or extraterrestrials beaming signals to Earth from their spaceships).

As in the case of the Kokomo Hum, industrial equipment is usually the first suspected source of the Hum. In one instance, Leventhall was able to trace the noise to a neighboring building's central heating unit.

Other suspected sources include high-pressure gas lines, electrical power lines, wireless communication devices or other sources. But only in a few cases has a Hum been linked to a mechanical or electrical source.

There's some speculation that the Hum could be the result of low-frequency electromagnetic radiation, audible only to some people. And there are verified cases in which individuals have particular sensitivities to signals outside the normal range of human hearing.

Medical experts are quick to point out that tinnitus (the perception of sound when no external noise is present) is a likely cause, but repeated testing has found that many hearers have normal hearing and no occurrences of tinnitus.

Environmental factors have also been blamed, including seismic activity such as microseisms — very faint, low-frequency earth tremors that can be generated by the action of ocean waves.

Other hypotheses, including military experiments and submarine communications, have yet to bear any fruit. For now, hearers of the Hum have to resort to white-noise machines and other devices to reduce or eliminate the annoying noise.

Leventhall, who recommends that some hearers turn to cognitive-behavioral therapy to relieve the symptoms caused by the Hum, isn't confident that the puzzle will be solved anytime soon.

"It's been a mystery for 40 years, so it may well remain one for a lot longer," Leventhall told the BBC.

Scientists discover what’s killing the bees and it’s worse than you thought

Via qz.com, 24 July 2013 - As we’ve written before, the mysterious mass die-off of honey bees that pollinate $30 billion worth of crops in the US has so decimated America’s apis mellifera population that one bad winter could leave fields fallow. Now, a new study has pinpointed some of the probable causes of bee deaths and the rather scary results show that averting beemageddon will be much more difficult than previously thought.

Scientists had struggled to find the trigger for so-called Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) that has wiped out an estimated 10 million beehives, worth $2 billion, over the past six years. Suspects have included pesticides, disease-bearing parasites and poor nutrition. But in a first-of-its-kind study published today in the journal PLOS ONE, scientists at the University of Maryland and the US Department of Agriculture have identified a witch’s brew of pesticides and fungicides contaminating pollen that bees collect to feed their hives. The findings break new ground on why large numbers of bees are dying though they do not identify the specific cause of CCD, where an entire beehive dies at once.

When researchers collected pollen from hives on the east coast pollinating cranberry, watermelon and other crops and fed it to healthy bees, those bees showed a significant decline in their ability to resist infection by a parasite called Nosema ceranae. The parasite has been implicated in Colony Collapse Disorder though scientists took pains to point out that their findings do not directly link the pesticides to CCD. The pollen was contaminated on average with nine different pesticides and fungicides though scientists discovered 21 agricultural chemicals in one sample. Scientists identified eight ag chemicals associated with increased risk of infection by the parasite.

Most disturbing, bees that ate pollen contaminated with fungicides were three times as likely to be infected by the parasite. Widely used, fungicides had been thought to be harmless for bees as they’re designed to kill fungus, not insects, on crops like apples.

“There’s growing evidence that fungicides may be affecting the bees on their own and I think what it highlights is a need to reassess how we label these agricultural chemicals,” Dennis vanEngelsdorp, the study’s lead author, told Quartz.

Labels on pesticides warn farmers not to spray when pollinating bees are in the vicinity but such precautions have not applied to fungicides.

Bee populations are so low in the US that it now takes 60% of the country’s surviving colonies just to pollinate one California crop, almonds. And that’s not just a west coast problem—California supplies 80% of the world’s almonds, a market worth $4 billion.

In recent years, a class of chemicals called neonicotinoids has been linked to bee deaths and in April regulators banned the use of the pesticide for two years in Europe where bee populations have also plummeted. But vanEngelsdorp, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland, says the new study shows that the interaction of multiple pesticides is affecting bee health.

“The pesticide issue in itself is much more complex than we have led to be believe,” he says. “It’s a lot more complicated than just one product, which means of course the solution does not lie in just banning one class of product.”

The study found another complication in efforts to save the bees: US honey bees, which are descendants of European bees, do not bring home pollen from native North American crops but collect bee chow from nearby weeds and wildflowers. That pollen, however, was also contaminated with pesticides even though those plants were not the target of spraying.

“It’s not clear whether the pesticides are drifting over to those plants but we need take a new look at agricultural spraying practices,” says vanEngelsdorp.

MASS FISH DIE-OFF: Unusually High Number Of Dead Fish Found Washed Ashore In Canandaigua Lake, New York?!

June 26, 2013 - UNITED STATES - An investigation is underway to learn why a greater-than-normal number of fish for this time of year are washing up on shore around Canandaigua Lake.



During spawning season it is typical to find dead fish washing up due to various stresses fish experience, such as in defending their turf and dealing with a rapid increase in temperature, said Canandaigua Lake Watershed Manager Kevin Olvany.

"The usual suspects" in Olvany's words are smaller fish like perch and sunfish. This season, he said, there appears to be a greater quantity of fish washing up of all varieties, which include larger fish — such as large bass. The situation warranted an investigation, Olvany said.

A recently deceased Sunfish washes ashore at the small boat launch at the north end of Canandaigua Lake.
Jack Haley/Messenger Post Media

A large fish washes up amonngst the large rocks on the north shore of Canandaigua Lake at Kershaw Park.
Jack Haley/Messenger Post Media

Over a dozen fish lay dead along with some garbage on the north shore of Canandaigua Lake along Kershaw Park.
Jack Haley/Messenger Post Media

Olvany was at Kershaw Park in Canandaigua on Monday looking over the situation, and he said other sections of the lake also appear to have more fish washing up. A fish sample has been sent to the state Department of Environmental Conservation for testing and results should be back soon, he said.

The DEC is having the fish tested for viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS) virus. A serious pathogen of fresh and saltwater fish, the rod-shaped virus affects fish of all size and age ranges. It does not pose any threat to human health, according to the DEC. The virus is causing a disease issue in the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada; it can cause hemorrhaging of fish tissue, including internal organs, and can cause the death of infected fish, the DEC says. Once a fish is infected with VHS, there is no known cure.

Olvany said that even if the first test comes back negative for the virus, there will be further testing to confirm that. The virus was found in fish in Irondequoit Bay in May, Olvany said.

Paula Larivee, who walks regularly along Kershaw Park, said she was disturbed to see the number of big, dead fish — 12 inches or longer, she said — during a walk Sunday.

“When you walk there several days a week, you notice changes in the lake,” said Larivee. “This was alarming.” - MPN Now.

Snow and Arctic sea ice extent plummet suddenly as globe bakes

Via Washington Post, 18 July 2013 - NOAA and NASA both ranked June 2013 among the top five warmest (NOAA fifth warmest, NASA second warmest) Junes on record globally (dating back to the late 1800s).  But, more remarkable, was the incredible snow melt that preceded the toasty month and the sudden loss of Arctic sea ice that followed.

NOAA and NASA both ranked June 2013 among the top five warmest (NOAA fifth warmest, NASA second warmest) Junes on record globally (dating back to the late 1800s).  But, more remarkable, was the incredible snow melt that preceded the toasty month and the sudden loss of Arctic sea ice that followed.

The amazing decline in Northern Hemisphere snow cover during May is a story few have told, but is certainly worth noting.  In April, hefty Northern Hemisphere snow cover ranked 9th highest on record (dating back to 1967), but then turned scant, plummeting to third lowest on record during May. Half of the existing snow melted away.

NH snow cover extent difference from average April to May (NOAA)

“This is likely one of the most rapid shifts in near opposite extremes on record, if not the largest from April to May,” said climatologist David Robinson, who runs Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.

The snow extent shrunk from 12.4 million square miles to 6.2 million square miles in a month’s time. By June, just 2.3 million square miles of snow remained in the Northern Hemisphere (a decline of 63 percent from May), third lowest on record.

“In recent years it hasn’t seemed that unusual to have average or even above average winter snow extent rapidly diminish to below average values come spring,” Robinson said.

Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover is in the midst of long-term free fall, similar to its relative, summer Arctic sea ice extent.

You may recall, late last summer the Arctic sea ice extent dropped to its lowest level on record, 49 percent below the 1979-2000 average.

Temperature difference from normal over the high latitude Northern Hemisphere over first 10 days of July (National Snow and Ice Data Center)

It’s not clear if 2013 levels will match 2012′s astonishing record low, but – with temperatures over the Arctic Ocean 1-3 degrees above average – the 2013 melt season has picked up in earnest during July.
“During the first two weeks of July, ice extent declined at a rate of 132,000 square kilometers (51,000 square miles) per day. This was 61% faster than the average rate of decline over the period 1981 to 2010 of 82,000 square kilometers (32,000 square miles) per day,” the National Snow and Ice Data Center writes on its website.


013 sea ice extent (blue line) compared to average (black line) and record (dahsed green line). (National Snow and Ice Data Center)

Despite this rapid ice loss, the current mid-July 2013 sea ice extent is greater than 2012 at the same time by about 208,000 square miles NSIDC says.

Will 2013 close the gap? That depends on the weather, as the Arctic Sea Ice blog explains:

….the amount of easy-to-melt ice is starting to run out. Even though this year’s ice pack consists of a record amount of first-year ice [which melts most readily], the weather still plays an important role. . . .

. . . there’s no telling what could happen if the weather is very conducive to melting/compacting/transport for a week or two….

Snow and Arctic sea ice extent plummet suddenly as globe bakes

Via Washington Post, 18 July 2013 - NOAA and NASA both ranked June 2013 among the top five warmest (NOAA fifth warmest, NASA second warmest) Junes on record globally (dating back to the late 1800s).  But, more remarkable, was the incredible snow melt that preceded the toasty month and the sudden loss of Arctic sea ice that followed.

NOAA and NASA both ranked June 2013 among the top five warmest (NOAA fifth warmest, NASA second warmest) Junes on record globally (dating back to the late 1800s).  But, more remarkable, was the incredible snow melt that preceded the toasty month and the sudden loss of Arctic sea ice that followed.

The amazing decline in Northern Hemisphere snow cover during May is a story few have told, but is certainly worth noting.  In April, hefty Northern Hemisphere snow cover ranked 9th highest on record (dating back to 1967), but then turned scant, plummeting to third lowest on record during May. Half of the existing snow melted away.

NH snow cover extent difference from average April to May (NOAA)

“This is likely one of the most rapid shifts in near opposite extremes on record, if not the largest from April to May,” said climatologist David Robinson, who runs Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.

The snow extent shrunk from 12.4 million square miles to 6.2 million square miles in a month’s time. By June, just 2.3 million square miles of snow remained in the Northern Hemisphere (a decline of 63 percent from May), third lowest on record.

“In recent years it hasn’t seemed that unusual to have average or even above average winter snow extent rapidly diminish to below average values come spring,” Robinson said.

Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover is in the midst of long-term free fall, similar to its relative, summer Arctic sea ice extent.

You may recall, late last summer the Arctic sea ice extent dropped to its lowest level on record, 49 percent below the 1979-2000 average.

Temperature difference from normal over the high latitude Northern Hemisphere over first 10 days of July (National Snow and Ice Data Center)

It’s not clear if 2013 levels will match 2012′s astonishing record low, but – with temperatures over the Arctic Ocean 1-3 degrees above average – the 2013 melt season has picked up in earnest during July.
“During the first two weeks of July, ice extent declined at a rate of 132,000 square kilometers (51,000 square miles) per day. This was 61% faster than the average rate of decline over the period 1981 to 2010 of 82,000 square kilometers (32,000 square miles) per day,” the National Snow and Ice Data Center writes on its website.


013 sea ice extent (blue line) compared to average (black line) and record (dahsed green line). (National Snow and Ice Data Center)

Despite this rapid ice loss, the current mid-July 2013 sea ice extent is greater than 2012 at the same time by about 208,000 square miles NSIDC says.

Will 2013 close the gap? That depends on the weather, as the Arctic Sea Ice blog explains:

….the amount of easy-to-melt ice is starting to run out. Even though this year’s ice pack consists of a record amount of first-year ice [which melts most readily], the weather still plays an important role. . . .

. . . there’s no telling what could happen if the weather is very conducive to melting/compacting/transport for a week or two….